If you would like information about this content we will be happy to work with you. It’s stalled. our use of cookies, and Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964. Now technology demands new and higher-level skills, including more critical thinking, creativity, and socioemotional skills. It is sometimes suggested that people should simply leave distressed places and move to where the jobs are. Many of the specific jobs most at risk from automation skew heavily toward one gender or the other. 2 America’s makers may see mixed results; they will need clear strategies to shift to advanced manufacturing and rebuild local supply chains. But the growth of high-wage opportunities can be realized only if workers can obtain the necessary education and skills. Please click "Accept" to help us improve its usefulness with additional cookies. Reinvention will be a harder task for trailing cities, some manufacturing towns, and rural counties that never bounced back from the Great Recession. Much of this is due to women’s heavy representation in health professions and personal care work—and some of these roles are low-paying. For African Americans, the potential displacement rate is 23.1 percent (4.6 million individuals). Addressing the affordable housing shortage in the fastest-growing urban areas would enable people who do want to move for better opportunities to do so (and would create demand in the construction sector at the same time). Select topics and stay current with our latest insights. Individual standouts like Phoenix and Austin have diverse economies and high concentrations of the tech and business services that may boost job creation. For these workers, governments and other stakeholders can help to make local labor markets more fluid and easier to navigate. Cities and counties across the United States are entering this period of technological and labor market change from different starting points. Differentials in the cost of living, ties with family and friends, and a growing cultural divide all partially explain these patterns, but more research is needed to understand these patterns. Just 25 cities (megacities and high-growth hubs, plus their urban peripheries) have accounted for more than two-thirds of job growth in the last decade (Exhibit 1). Previous MGI research has found that less than 5 percent of occupations can be automated in their entirety, but within 60 percent of jobs, at least 30 percent of activities could be automated by adapting currently demonstrated technologies. Progress isn’t just slow. Use minimal essential Because some racial minorities have lower educational attainment, we find they are more vulnerable to being displaced by automation. But millions who need to switch employers or change occupations will need training options outside the workplace. Millions of jobs could be phased out even as new ones are created. We use cookies essential for this site to function well. These losses will not necessarily manifest as sudden mass unemployment. Some of them are close to retirement, but others have years to go—and the prospect of a drastic change may be daunting or unappealing to some who have logged many years in their current roles. Learn how we work with private- and public-sector institutions on challenges created by growing pressure on resource systems and increasing environmental risk. Growth and displacement may occur even within the same occupational category. The challenge is not fighting against technology but preparing US workers to succeed alongside it. Even as some occupations decline, the US economy should continue to grow and create new jobs in the years to 2030. tab. Furthermore, when people in rural segments and less vibrant cities do move, it is usually to places with a similar profile rather than to megacities or high-growth hubs (Exhibit 2). This analysis does not account for different wage growth or decline over time. Final Report | February 2019. Our mission is to help leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the global economy. Embedding human principles into the nature of work--principles such as purpose and meaning, growth and passion, and collaboration and relationships--enables the social enterprise to continually reinvent itself on the back of perpetual disruption. McKinsey & Co. surveyed over 3,500 shoppers in the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Germany, and France for its 2020 Holiday Season report. This work and the report Rural outlier counties should continue to sustain growth through natural resources and tourism, although they may manage job growth of only 3 percent. The relative priorities will vary from place to place, and each community will need to determine what is most urgent and set its own agenda. As automation changes the world of work, governments, businesses, and members of the workforce can take action and adapt. This year’s report finds that corporate America is at a critical crossroads: 1 in 4 women are considering downshifting their careers or leaving the workforce due to the pressures created by Covid-19. This approach reveals that the differences between local economies across the country are more nuanced than a simple rural-urban divide or regional variations. At the high end of the displacement spectrum are 512 counties, home to 20.3 million people, where more than 25 percent of workers could be displaced. Despite new occupations and overall job growth, one worrisome trend could continue: the hollowing out of middle-wage jobs. Geography itself can be a barrier to connecting to new opportunities, given the declines in Americans’ mobility. Automation will affect workers across age brackets, but both the youngest and oldest segments of the labor force face unique risks. The mixed middle cities are positioned for modest jobs gains. We model a range of different adoption scenarios based on historical experience that take local wage differentials into account. Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964. Our findings suggest that net job growth through 2030 may be concentrated in relatively few urban areas, while wide swaths of the country see little employment growth or even lose jobs. Why We Performed This Audit. Based on the median salary of jobs in 2017. RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE . Annual Revenue ( $ ) McKinsey revenue was $10.5 b in FY, 2019 which is a (5.0%) year over year increase from the previous period. On the opposite side of the generational divide, some 11.5 million US workers over the age of 50 could be displaced by automation. Improving the representation of women in the tech sector is a priority; today they hold only 26 percent of computing jobs in the United States. Flip the odds. Wages and purchasing power are real concerns. Reinvent your business. Learn more about cookies, Opens in new Companies can make a difference, too, in recognizing that talent, space, and untapped potential are available all over the country. Our approach to social responsibility includes empowering our people to give back to their communities, operating our firm in ways that are socially responsible and environmentally sustainable, and working with our clients to intentionally address societal challenges. hereLearn more about cookies, Opens in new A central challenge in the The next decade will bring every community new challenges—but also new opportunities to boost innovation, productivity, and inclusive growth. For the 2019 report, they collected information from over 300 organizations employing a total of 13 million people. Understanding who holds the occupations with the highest automation potential today is an important first step for designing targeted interventions and training programs (Exhibit 5). Nearly 40 percent of US jobs are currently in occupational categories that could shrink between now and 2030. The most effective programs will need to be replicated across similar cities, counties, and industries. This places us in the top 1 percent of more than 60,000 evaluated organizations across the globe. hubs, plus their peripheries, Our analysis suggests that by 2030, they could decline as a share of national employment by 3.4 percentage points. Many stable cities and independent economies have relatively educated workforces and could become attractive regional outposts for corporations looking to expand into lower-cost locations. Please use UP and DOWN arrow keys to review autocomplete results. Each community will have to take inventory of its assets, such as available industrial space, natural attractions, local universities, and specialized workforce skills. Every community, from the most dynamic to the most distressed, faces economic development issues that need to be solved at the local and regional level. Press enter to select and open the results on a new page. These differences are explained by each county’s and city’s current industry and occupation mix as well as wages. Policy makers and employers alike cannot ignore the implications if a large share of the population is falling behind. This year has brought unprecedented turmoil and crises of health and racial injustice. The report also benefited enormously . Reinvent your business. All levels of government, nonprofits, education providers, and industry associations can play a role here. White workers have a potential displacement rate of 22.4 percent, and Asian-American workers have the lowest rate at 21.7 percent. But even the most thriving cities will need to connect marginalized populations with better opportunities. In August 2019, Kering CEO François-Henri Pinault spearheaded an industry-wide pact to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. tab. automation age will be The Rural Innovation Initiative, recently launched in nine communities nationwide, is building outposts for workers in the downtowns of rural cities, aiming to spur professional collaboration and nurture tech talent across the country. Please click "Accept" to help us improve its usefulness with additional cookies. Discussion Paper - McKinsey Global Institute. That’s what we found in Women in the Workplace 2018, a study conducted by McKinsey The growing acceptance of remote working models could be a positive trend for creating jobs in rural counties, whether full-time work-at-home employee roles or contract work. But many workers may need to switch employers or make even bigger moves to different occupations in new locations. Our model suggests that these areas could experience net job loss, with their employment bases shrinking by 3 percent. Back to McKinsey Quarterly Magazine McKinsey Quarterly 2019 Number 2 Resilience. A common thread among shrinking roles is that they involve many routine or physical tasks. Kinsey Report Introduction. The skills needed in fast-growing STEM roles, in particular, are continuously evolving. cookies, download the full list of locations in each segment, McKinsey_Website_Accessibility@mckinsey.com, less than 5 percent of occupations can be automated in their entirety, women represent 47 percent of the displaced workers in our midpoint automation scenario, representation of women in the tech sector. All over the country are more nuanced than a simple rural-urban divide or regional variations consumer behaviour that highlights importance... Routine or physical tasks low levels beyond these crises mix of the displaced workers to succeed it. 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